Will the “Mother Of All Bombs” bother the PIN countries?

Will the “Mother Of All Bombs” bother the PIN countries?

                So, the “Mother Of All Bombs” has arrived in the form of the Massive Ordnance Air Blast (MOAB) bomb. Weighing in at around 10 tons, it is indeed a heavyweight among conventional ordnance. Some commentators have hinted that its use in Afghanistan could be a warning against nuclear adventurism by countries like Pakistan, Iran & North Korea. Really??? That’s a canard if ever there was one.

                The MOAB is rather large….it apparently rests on a pallet which is then dragged out from the belly of the attacking aircraft with the help of a chute. Definitely not a manoeuvre any fighter aircraft would either be able to or even willing to attempt! In fact, in this case it was apparently dropped by a relatively slow-moving C130 aircraft. Bear in mind that it was used against an enemy which does not have any defence against attacks from the air. So, the mighty USAF strolled in and delivered it on time & on target with the minimum of fuss.

                But what about the PIN countries of Pakistan, Iran & North Korea (which is actually more like a “pain-in-the-ass” for the US)? Quite besides the fact that all of these countries have respectable air defence systems which can detect & appropriately deal with a slow-moving threat like the MOAB-carrier aircraft, other considerations exist for the US not to use this bomb against their nuclear installations. The US wouldn’t consider using it against Pakistan because for one, that country is useful for keeping India tied down in its own neighbourhood. Secondly, with Pakistan using so much of US military hardware & software including software embedded in the hardware, it wouldn’t take much for the US to suppress, overcome or hoodwink their air defences (remember the taking down of Osama bin Laden in Pakistan, near the garrison town of Abbottabad).

                While Iranian air defences can probably be suppressed effectively long enough for the delivery of a MOAB, it’s a messy way to take out nuclear installations especially when multiple locations are involved. Israel did it very effectively despite the presence of Saddam Hussein’s battle-hardened Iraqi Air Force around 36 years ago, without any MOAB, particularly because there was only one target- the reactor at Osiraq. Iran would have learnt from that incident and ensured the appropriate dispersal of their nuclear facilities to make the mission even more difficult for any would-be attacker.

                North Korea is a different kettle of fish altogether. They are already reported to have multiple nuclear warheads & are probably moving them around the country on mobile launchers. So, while a MOAB style attack (in itself requiring a massive effort to suppress North Korean air defences) might take out their nuclear weapon manufacturing sites, how does one protect against a massive counter-strike with already nuclear-armed missiles aimed at South Korea and possibly even Okinawa in Japan where large numbers of US servicemen are stationed? Ah yes, the THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defence) system.

                The THAAD was originally developed to counter the threat posed by Iraqi Scud missiles during the Gulf War. The missile carries no warhead & instead relies on kinetic energy (reported to possess a speed greater than Mach 8) to intercept incoming ballistic missiles. As of Mar 2017 two THAAD mobile launchers had arrived in South Korea, but even after their deployment is completed, would they be sufficient to counter a barrage of nuclear-armed missiles from the North (including a submarine-launched option)? Keep in mind that only a line on the map, the 38^th parallel, & a small De-Militarized Zone separates the crazy dictatorship of the North from the democratic South in the Korean peninsula.

                So, comes the US effort to keep China in the mix. For years China has conveyed the impression that it exercises a certain amount of influence over its immediate neighbour in the Korean peninsula, the exact extent of which has remained a closely guarded secret for obvious reasons since it serves the purposes of both sides perfectly well. Quite characteristically however, with nil political baggage to handle, Trump has called the Chinese bluff! As a result, China has seemingly been trying to calm the young Kim ever since Xi Jinping’s recent visit to the US.

                Though it would be extremely difficult (& politically suicidal for Xi) for China to jettison an ally like North Korea, it can ill afford to have a nuclear conflagration at its doorstep. Apart from not looking good on China’s CV while it seeks to portray its image as a world power ready to take on the big boys, it would also likely end up supplanting the hardline communist regime with a capitalist society on its border.

                Despite Chinese efforts, if the US does manage to rattle Kim enough for him to launch an attack, the North will likely be smothered with overwhelming force by the US……collateral damage to the South & Japan notwithstanding. Quite simply put, it’s a Catch 22 situation for the Chinese & the US has kept up the pressure by rushing a carrier battle group to the Sea of Japan. Regime change seems to be the only way ahead for the North and the US would be wise to let China engineer as well as control its aftermath, at least for the moment.

                Coming back to the MOAB…..quite clearly then, its use would be restricted to areas where the USAF controls the skies and it will probably be used to clear stubborn and literally “underground” resistance of the kind posed by the Taliban, ISIS or even the Hezbollah. Its use in the Afghan theatre was probably to check its operational effectiveness & refine military protocols for its future exploitation. Nothing more, nothing less.